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But I really don't see how they can manage the same kind of company in that environment. Their expected $50 per box is not going to work in the under $200 world. Under $5, maybe - and only if they deliver something the free software can't. With so many new customers piling in so quickly, customers who've never used any PC before, the old lock-in may not apply. Even if it has some effect, more than $5 is very hard to see. And that's gross - distribution costs would leave less room for profit.
So I believe that the under-$200 world is going to be as hard on Microsoft and similar software companies. Remember the transition from $100,000 very custom software for workstations and minicomputers towards shrinkwrap software under-$500on PCs? That was terminally hard on many software companies, and it will be like that.
In conclusion, sell your Microsoft stock now. And use it to buy a cheap little laptop - they're a hoot.